Live pig market: Formation of New Price Level Trend

The increase of the live pig price in Dong Nai has been lasting for about 2 months, with prices fluctuating between VND 59.000 and 61.000 per kilogram. This price level is higher than before, bringing profits to farmers after a period of losses. The expectation is that the live pig market will continue to rise due to better consumption demand and reduced supply.

Profit for pig farmers

The price of live pig after the 2023 Lunar New Year caused difficulties for farmers as it reached only around VND 40.000 per kilogram, much lower than the production cost, resulting in heavy losses. However, starting from the second quarter of 2023, the live pig price showed signs of recovery and this price increase has been intensified since the beginning of May, currently surpassing the VND60.000 per kilogram mark. This is the highest price level for live pig in the past 2 years.

The main reason for the formation of this new high price level for live pig compared to the beginning of the year is the sharp decrease in supply. Traders and businesses in the livestock sector have informed that the increase in pork prices is due to the significant decrease in supply as many farmers have reduced or stopped raising pigs after a long period of losses. According to a report from the Dong Nai Province’s Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, by the end of the first quarter of 2023, the total number of pigs in the province had decreased by about 2.5 million compared to the beginning of the year.

According to the forecast of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, starting from the second quarter of 2023, the pork price is expected to continue to rise, and the live pig market will become more active. This prediction is based on the increasing demand for food consumption as the tourism and service industry begins to recover, as well as the economic recovery of China, which may affect live pig prices in Vietnam. In the near future, pig farmers can expect higher price levels and increased pork consumption in the market.

Difficulties faced by small-scale livestock farming

Although the livestock sector has started to make profits as live pig prices are higher than at the beginning of the year, small-scale farmers still feel hesitant about restocking. The livestock industry is continuing its transformation towards reducing small-scale farming and developing large-scale industrial livestock farming with integrated supply chains and competitive advantages.

Mr. Nguyen Van Trung, a pig farmer in Lo 25 Commune, Thong Nhat District, shared that with the current live pig prices offered by traders, livestock farms can make profits if there is a sufficient supply of piglets. However, his family and many other small-scale farmers have suspended or significantly reduced their herds without considering immediate restocking. The reason is that these farmers are facing financial difficulties after a long period of losses. Farmers still feel hesitant about reinvesting due to the ongoing livestock disease situation, especially African swine fever. In addition, the price of animal feed remains high, which requires careful consideration before deciding to restock.

This is also the reason why the livestock industry continues to transition towards reducing small-scale farming and focusing on the development of industrial livestock farming. According to data from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development in the province, in previous years, small-scale farming accounted for a high proportion of the total number of livestock herds, but currently, it only accounts for about 10% of the total herds, with nearly 6,300 small-scale livestock farming households.

Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan, Vice Chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association, also added that after a long period of losses, most small-scale farmers have gone through a difficult period. In fact, many small-scale farmers have quit the profession because the more they raise, the more they lose. With the price of animal feed still high and many additional costs, coupled with the complex situation of African swine fever, many small-scale farmers still have no intention of reinvesting.

Source: Nhà chăn nuôi